Fantasy Baseball Picks: Astros vs Phillies DraftKings MLB DFS Showdown Strategy for Nov. 1

0

Let’s try again, okay? After MLB postponed Game 3 on Monday night, the World Series is set to be back in action on Tuesday with the Houston Astros visit the Philadelphia Phillies. However, the extra rest day brought changes to the expected throwing match, as Ranger Suarez ($10,600) will now take the mound for his hometown team.

Dry off and let’s break it all down from a Showdown perspective.

Define your DraftKings fantasy football rosters here: MLB Showdown $200,000 Game 3 Extravaganza [$50K to 1st] (HOU versus PHI)


CONFRONTATION STRATEGY

Captain’s Choice

Lance McCullers Jr. ($17,100 CP) – It’s rare for an asset to have both the highest floor and the highest cap on any given listing, but that’s exactly the scenario we find McCullers in on Tuesday. The 29-year-old has looked dominant in his first two playoff appearances, posting a 1.84 FIP and 27.7 percent strikeout rate in 11.0 innings. McCullers was also about as good during the regular season as you might expect from someone coming off a long stint in IL, recording a 2.27 ERA over eight starts. Ultimately, McCuller’s viability in Game 3 has a lot to do with his juxtaposition to Suarez. McCullers has the most obvious advantage in strikeouts. McCullers has the better game. Ergo, McCullers is the one you want at 1.5x value.

Yordan Alvarez ($14,700 CP) – The one knocking on McCullers? He will be Great chalky. If that’s a concern, may I suggest Alvarez? There is a chance that some people will avoid the slugger in a left versus left match, especially in the captain’s slot. I think that would be a mistake. Yes, Suarez has been dynamite against the LHBs in 2022, holding opponents to a .237 wOBA, but Alvarez isn’t your average left-handed hitter. In 192 regular season plate appearances in the division, the 25-year-old has reduced .321/.411/.586 with a 183 wRC+. In team with Alex Bregman ($9,200) and Jose Altuve ($9,000), it was Alvarez who led the Astros with a jaw-dropping .447 xwOBA against southpaws. Also, how often do we realistically think Rob Thomson will let Suarez do the ordering? Even if Alvarez doesn’t score left-handed, he should get a few cracks at the Phillies’ bullpen.


UTIL plays

Chas McCormick ($6,600) – There are several reasons to like McCormick at this price, starting with the fact that he’s been scorching for the past few weeks. In his 31 postseason plate appearances, the outfielder hits .280 with a .401 wOBA and 167 wRC+. It’s a small sample, but it’s certainly nice to see. However, if you need a bit bigger data pool, let’s dive into McCormick’s numbers against LHP during the regular season. In 115 PA, the former 21st round pick cut .340/.409/.563 with a .223 ISO and a .972 OPS. Really, every part of Houston’s training is dangerous.

Brandon Marsh ($4,800) – I’m guessing the Phillies aren’t going to change the roster they’ve already offered for Game 3, and if they do, we know Marsh will move up to ninth place. It’s not the most ideal location in the command for DFS, but let’s face it – Marsh’s value is mostly tied to its tiny price tag. Still, that doesn’t mean the outfielder has no advantage. After being traded to Philadelphia at the deadline, Marsh went down .312/.348/.505 with a 137 wRC+ against a right-handed pitcher. He also faced McCullers more than anyone not named Jean Segura ($7,600) on the Phillies’ roster thanks to his time in the AL West. He has three hits and .400 OBP in 10 plate appearances. Maybe some experience will pay dividends.


Fades

Kyle Schwarber ($9,600) – This just doesn’t seem like the right place to pay Schwarber. While the veteran expanded his fantasy horizons with three stolen bases in the playoffs, McCullers isn’t shaping up to be an incredible game for the king of the National League Tour. First off, the RHP was particularly stingy with the LHBs during the regular season, holding the 96 they faced at an average of .165 with a .253 hitting percentage. Honestly, most left-handed “damage” to McCuller was walks — not exactly what owners are looking for in DFS. McCullers also relies heavily on his curveball when facing a left-handed hitter. In fact, he’s thrown the pitch in 48.7% of counts in the division in 2022. Meanwhile, Schwarber has only managed a .192 average and a .167 ISO off the curves this season.


THE RESULT

It’s really hard not to like the Astros when they face a left-handed opponent. Houston is 40-11 in its last 51 games against a southpaw, while the team is also 21-6 in the last 27 times it has seen an LHP on the road. Remember, the Astros’ 124 wRC+ in the division was the second-best mark in all of baseball — they can post some hastily twisted numbers.

Final score: Houston 6, Philadelphia 3

Define your DraftKings fantasy football rosters here: MLB Showdown $200,000 Game 3 Extravaganza [$50K to 1st] (HOU versus PHI)


Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and discover the game inside the game.


For sports betting, go to DraftKings Sportsbook Where download the DK Sportsbook app.


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may occasionally play on my personal account in the games I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal views on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the views of DraftKings and are not a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment to create queues. I can also deploy different players and strategies than those I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

Share.

Comments are closed.